Today we released the 2012 LRA Crisis Tracker Mid-Year Security Brief, which analyzes trends and patterns in LRA activity from January – June 2012. You can download a pdf of the report here, or quickly flip through the slides on the Speaker Deck plug-in above. A brief synopsis of the key points below:
LRA violence escalated significantly compared to late 2011: Reported attacks and abductions by the LRA doubled in the first six months of 2012 relative to the latter half of 2011. A vast majority of reported LRA attacks occurred in northern Democratic Republic of Congo (155), with concentrations west and south of Garamba National Park. LRA attacks also increased significantly in southeast Central African Republic, with as many reported attacks in the first half of 2012 (35) as in all of 2011.
LRA abductions are increasing, but trends indicate they’re mostly porters, not future child soldiers: LRA killings may be decreasing, but reported LRA abductions increased by 127% from 137 in the latter half of 2011 to 311 in the first half of 2012. However, several trends in abductions from January –June 2012 indicate that the LRA is mostly targeting people to carry looted goods, not to train as future fighters:
-47.6% of all reported abductees escaped or were released within 72 hours of being abducted, indicating the LRA is not able or interested to train them to become fighters;
-Of abductions in which age and/or gender was recorded, 70.6% were adults and 67.3% were males, indicating that LRA forces are targeting adult males most capable of carrying heavy loads of looted goods.
LRA attacks are getting less deadly: Though LRA attacks are up, they are killing far fewer people than in previous years. Only 10% of reported LRA attacks included a civilian death in the first half of 2012, compared with 30% in 2011 and 34.7% in 2010. Similarly, the LRA reportedly killed an average of 0.2 people per attack in the first half of 2012, compared with 0.52 in 2011 and 1.5 in 2010. LRA killings were particularly rare in Congo, where they killed 12 people in 155 attacks, averaging 0.08 deaths per attack.
The LRA could be trafficking in illegal ivory: The LRA has long been known for avoiding trade in illegal minerals or goods. However, park rangers working in Garamba National Park in northern Congo reportedly found significant evidence of LRA forces trafficking in illegal ivory from poached elephants in the first half of 2012. Park rangers confiscated elephant tusks from suspected LRA forces in May, and an escapee from an LRA group in Garamba witnessed LRA combatants with tusks as well. Reports have also emerged of LRA poaching elephants for tusks across the border in CAR.
LRA violence in CAR spiked following Ugandan military operations: Ugandan military forces reportedly lost the trail of LRA groups operating in southeast CAR for much of late 2011. However, in early 2012, Ugandan troops operating there began placing more direct pressure on LRA groups operating in the remote forested areas west of Djemah, CAR. In the weeks following this pressure, LRA attacks on communities surrounding this reserve increased significantly, with 25 reported attacks on civilians in March 2012 alone. Reported attacks on civilians in CAR dropped from April – June, though Ugandan troops continue to pursue LRA groups there.
Other armed groups may be taking advantage of insecurity caused by the LRA: In addition to the 190 reported LRA attacks in the first half of 2012, the Crisis Tracker recorded 59 attacks by unknown perpetrators. The perpetrators for these attacks could be LRA forces, rogue military personnel, or bandits. Attacks by unknown armed groups were concentrated in Congo’s Haut Uele district, where reports of bandits committing copycat LRA attacks are highest.
Caesar Achellam taken into custody, sparks further defections: On May 12, Ugandan soldiers took Caesar Achellam, one of the most senior remaining LRA officers, into custody along the border between Congo and CAR after pursuing his group for several weeks. At least eight more LRA members defected as a result of Achellam’s capture over the next six weeks. This included Achellam’s bodyguard, who escaped on June 26 with five other LRA officers after being blamed for allowing Achellam to escape. Overall, 149 people either escaped or defected from the LRA from January – June 2012.
-Paul
P.S. To find out more about the methodology used to vet, verify, and categorize incidents that are recorded in the LRA Crisis Tracker, see page 12 of the 2012 Mid-Year Security Brief, or read the LRA Crisis Tracker Map Methodology and Database Codebook v1.3.